As the situation remains chaotic in Myanmar, foreign residents face the choices of staying or leaving

At a time when tensions remain high in Myanmar, foreign residents are also nervously following the aftermath of the coup that took place two weeks ago. Two Taiwanese professionals working in Myanmar talked about how the coup has impacted foreign investment and the relationship between foreign organizations and the Burmese government.

It has been more than two weeks since the Myanmar military overthrew the civilian government in a coup. As citizens in Myanmar continue to stage protests in several parts of the country, the military has also intensified their responses. Foreign residents are finding it difficult to deal with the sudden change of regime as well as the uncertainties that come with it.

A Taiwanese national working as a consultant for foreign investors said things remained roughly the same in Yangon during the first few days after the coup. He believes all sides were still trying to make sense of the situation.

“After Myanmar citizens began to share information about the coup on Facebook, they started to organize protests on the street while calling for people to join the civil disobedience movement,” he said.

Street protests were elevated to another level last week, and most of those who joined the protests were young people who have deep connections with the international community. “These young people didn’t experience the bloody conflict in 1988 and they are very good at using social media,” he said.

“They are also very committed to upholding the democratic values in Myanmar. Even if they don’t support Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, they still don’t think the military can simply overthrow a civilian government through a coup. They think the military didn’t respect their votes.”

Another Taiwanese national who works at an international organization in Myanmar said she thinks the coup and the moves that the military has made since then, have strengthened many people’s determination to join the protest.

“Since last week, residents in Yangon have started to form their own neighborhood watch team to ensure the safety of everyone in the community,” she said. “Comparing to the first few days after the coup, I think the protests have become bigger and more organized.”

Limited impact on foreign investment

The Taiwanese consultant said while western countries have gradually lifted their sanctions against Myanmar over the last few years, the Rohingya crisis in 2018 forced European countries to adopt a more conservative approach when they deal with Myanmar. Most of the foreign investments still come from countries like China, Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Thailand.

“Since Myanmar amended its Corporation Act in 2018, the Burmese government began to open the country up for foreign investment and investors also became more interested in Myanmar,” he said. “However, since the Rohingya crisis, my company has less and less clients from Europe or North America. Usually, foreign investors will consider Myanmar as a high risk destination.”

Following the coup, he predicts foreign investors will re-evaluate the risks of investing in Myanmar. However, it is still unclear whether western governments will impose a coordinated sanction against Myanmar’s military or not.

“If western governments imposed a coordinated sanction against Myanmar’s military, many accounts will be frozen and the flow of funds will be interrupted,” he said. “For Burmese businesses that rely heavily on funds supplied by international organizations, a coordinated international sanction will have a huge impact on them. So far, many foreign investment cases have been suspended due to the coup.”

However, he points out that since Myanmar still has a certain level of attraction to foreign investors, once situation in the country stabilizes, he thinks foreign investment will gradually return to the country. “As long as a country has a stable legal environment and the government is willing to follow relevant laws, foreign investors sometimes may not care so much about whether an authoritarian or democratic government is in power,” he said. “China is not a democracy, but foreign investors are still very interested in investing in China.”

International organizations are cautiously observing the situation

The coup has also brought a lot of uncertainties to international organizations operating in Myanmar. The Taiwanese staff at an international organization in Myanmar said as many organizations work closely with the Myanmar government, many projects have been suspended following the coup.

“Many civil servants have joined the civil disobedience movement because they don’t want to work for a military government,” she said. “Since the military took power, many communication between international organizations and the Myanmar government have been put on hold. I think the coup will influence a lot of NGOs that work with the Myanmar government.”

She points out that over the last few years, the Myanmar government has increased its control over NGOs operating in the country, asking them to seek the government’s approval before launching any programs. “From the perspective of NGOs, they probably won’t want to work with an illegitimate government,” she said. “As for the military, they might also have more plans to further increase control over the NGOs.”

According to her, most international organizations are still closely observing the aftermath of the coup, because even if some organizations decide to keep the operation in Myanmar, she expects the situation to be very different from how it used to be.

She said over the last few years, Myanmar has become a hot spot for international organizations to establish local programs since the country gradually open up. Many organizations saw the potential to deepen their partnerships in Myanmar. As a result, many public health and social welfare programs in the country is run through the joint efforts of international organizations and the Myanmar government.

“Once the partnership between the Myanmar government and internatinoal organizations changes, it could seriously hamper Myanmar’s national development,” she predicts. “It’s like while there were originally two pillars to support a system, and after you took away one pillar, it would cause the system to collapse.”

Since Myanmar maintains a strict border control as part of its response to the coronavirus outbreak, for its foreign residents, once they decide to leave Myanmar, it could be hard for them to return to the country in the near future. Despite the tough situation, many foreign residents are still contemplating whether it is still suitable for them to stay in the country or not.

“Many of my foreign friends are thinking about leaving Myanmar, but for me, it’s very hard to just leave behind a team that I spend so much time to build over the last three years,” said the Taiwanese guy in the consulting industry.

So far, he thinks the sanctions revealed by foreign governments have only brought limited impact on Myanmar’s military, while streets protests can’t really force the military back to the negotiation table. These factors cause Myanmar’s domestic situation to remain chaotic, and he expects it remains this way for quite a while.

The piece was first published in Mandarin on DW’s Chinese website.