The coup in Myanmar signals a possible return to long term military rule

After Myanmar’s military imposed a one-year state of emergency on the country this morning, some experts predict that the move is a blow to Myanmar’s transition to democracy and it could take a few decades for the civilian government and the military to repair trust and relationship.

Question: Following news of the military coup in Myanmar, how do you assess the latest development?

Hunter Marston: I was very surprised because the military made a statement on Saturday, in which they said they would respect the constitution and that the media had misinterpreted a top general’s recent remarks about abolishing the constitution.

I was very surprised by the military’s quick moves to launch a mass arrest, place soldiers on the streets and shut down Internet and phone communication. It’s very concerning.

Question: While this is not the first time that Myanmar’s military stages a coup, this is the first coup since the civilian government was elected. Do you think this is going to change Myanmar’s political trajectory in the future?

Hunter Marston: I think we will know more about the impact of the coup in the next 24 to 48 hours. The best case scenario would be the military releasing all of the activists and politicians that have been arrested after some compromise by the NLD, guaranteeing certain powers are protected.

However, I think the coup more likely signals this will be a long term return to military rule for at least one year.

Question: Can this be viewed as a blow to Myanmar’s attempt to try to transition into democracy?

Hunter Marston: The coup is a huge blow to Myanmar’s effort to transition towards democracy. The timing to stage this coup is strange, as the military essentially waited five to six years of civilian control before taking power again. It is no doubt a huge setback to Myanmar’s democracy even if it’s just a year of state of emergency.

I think the coup has irreparably damaged the very limited trust that was built between the civilian government and the military. It also shows that it will require at least several years or perhaps decades to rebuild the relationship.

Question: The international community is closely monitoring the situation in Myanmar, as the U.S., Australia and Japan have all issued statements on the coup. How do you think the coup will impact Myanmar’s relationship with the international community?

Hunter Marston: I think this will limit Myanmar’s ability to engage with foreign partners, particularly the U.S. and the EU. It will have a lesser impact on Myanmar’s relationship with other countries. I think China will take its time to wait and see how the power struggle shakes out before releasing any statement.

With regard to India and Japan, they have been engaging with Myanmar in a pragmatic way over the last decade. Both countries have been pretty diplomatic in their relationship with Myanmar. They have advocated less for human rights or democracy or liberal reforms in the country.

India has deepened its security cooperation with the Myanmar military. I think some of Myanmar’s regional partners will probably remain despite the change into a military government. Nonetheless, it will definitely rupture its relationship with the west and democracies.

Question: How does the coup in Myanmar reflect the political trend that we have been seeing in Southeast Asia in recent years?

Hunter Marston: The coup is reflective of a ripple that’s already occurring across the region. In many ways, the Myanmar military might have had some internal conversations telling itself that “Thailand had a military coup and the Trump administration repaired its relationship with Bangkok,” so it might be looking to other countries and examples like that.

While Hun Sen in Cambodia has alienated western supporters, Washington and the EU still try to maintain some influence in Cambodia. I think it’s probably a gambling move by the Myanmar military as they think they could get away with staging a coup. They thought they could maintain enough support from other countries while playing the China card against Washington in the way that Thailand did. Washington wants to maintain influence in countries across Southeast Asia and its competition with China.

The interview was first published in Mandarin on DW’s Chinese website.