Zhang Li-Fan: China lacks the political wisdom to handle the growing international pressure

Over the last few weeks, the US began an inquiry into China’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak, hoping to hold Beijing responsible for the pandemic that has now killed more than 250,000 people worldwide. In response, China unleashed its “Wolf Warriors,” led by its diplomats. As the relationship between China and the US becomes more confrontational, Chinese historian Zhang Li-Fan thinks that the current situation is the result of both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump’s political needs.

Question: Washington’s Deputy National Security Advisor Matt Pottinger gave a speech on the 101th anniversary of the May Fourth Movement. He suggested that there could be a possible counterattack against the government triggered by populist sentiments in China, as the government increased its crackdown on the civil society. Do you think such scenario can happen in China under the current circumstances?

Zhang Li-Fan: It’s been 101 years since the May Fourth Movement in China, and the situation in the country now is very different. I think it’s hard to make such comparison. The May Fourth Movement happened due to the Beiyang Government’s need to engage in political fights. They leaked information about the Paris Peace Conference to student groups, which led to the May Fourth Movement. In a way, they used students’ patriotism for the country to engage in the political fight.

However, China doesn’t really have the similar circumstances to cultivate another May Fourth Movement. While there is a very radical form of patriotism being promoted online, the patriotism mostly come from China’s diplomats, who have been branded as the country’s “Wolf Warriors.” But even with their extreme version of patriotism, China doesn’t have the right conditions to trigger another May Fourth Movement now.

I think the situation in China now is more similar to the Boxer Uprising at the end of the Qing Dynasty. But if the Chinese government wants to launch a similar movement now, they might endanger the stability of their own administration. Since the COVID19 outbreak, a lot of people who originally supported the government have now become disillusioned. They no longer trust the government.

I think the reason why the Chinese government is kicking off a patriotic campaign similar to the Boxer Uprising is because there is a political need to do so. They want to use patriotism to strengthen people’s faith in the government. However, they may not be able to achieve that goal.

Question: China and the US have been engaged in a fierce war of words over the COVID19 pandemic for several weeks now. Beijing is facing a lot of pressure as several countries have called for a global inquiry into China’s handling of the outbreak. How do you think China will respond?

Zhang Li-Fan: I think Beijing can’t find a right solution to tackle the growing international pressure, and I think the current response shows that the regime lacks political wisdoms to handle the pressure. Many countries have joined the call for a global inquiry, and this topic will likely dominate the US presidential election that will take place in November.

I think Donald Trump and Xi Jinping both have their political needs to adopt a more confrontational approach to handle the bilateral relations between both countries, and I think that led to the current situation that we are seeing. But for China, I think they lack the awareness to properly handle the problem in front of them, so they adopt a more Mao Zedong-style approach.

We see the media heavily criticizing the US, which reminds us of the extremely combative style used by the media during the Cultural Revolution. The language they use is very similar to the tone and phrasing during the Cultural Revolution. It reminds me of the May 20th Declaration he used to respond to the Great Anti-China Chorus launched by the international community at the time.

I think the call for a global inquiry reminded Xi Jinping of that particular period of history. At the time, he was still a teenager who might feel his blood was boiling with indignation to the callings from a great leader like Mao. He might even think that the same strategy can work under the current circumstance.

Question: Do you think the international community can achieve their goals through the global inquiry? Or can China reduce the damages extended from the global inquiry through their growing international influence?

Zhang Li-Fan: The Chinese government is wealthier than the Mao Zedong administration, and they might also have greater military power. However, comparing to the US, China still falls behind in terms of its military and technological power. If both countries decided to suspend all mutual interactions, China will no longer receive western support for its technological innovation, and that could lead to China’s disconnection from the mainstream civilization in the world.

I think this is a very dangerous scenario, and I think the Chinese leaders haven’t realized this potential danger. Or they might have realized the underlying danger, but all they can do now is to safeguard their political power. As a result, their only option is to be tough within the CCP’s political system. They need to act tough in order to gain the support from party members, the People’s Liberation Army, and Chinese citizens.

Sometimes, I think they might even intentionally act tough in front of the US, because they want Washington to have the impression that “We are not afraid of you and you can’t scare us. Ultimately, we still have to sit down and negotiate.”

On top of that, there are many technical issues with launching a global inquiry, and I don’t think these foreign countries can find the right solutions in the near future. So I think the main purpose now for both China and the US is to keep engaging in the war of wards, and try to threaten each other.

Question: As the pandemic gradually becomes under control in China, do you think the Chinese government will continue to use a high-pressure approach to manage the civil society?

Zhang Li-Fan: I think it is unlikely for Beijing to relax their control over the civil society, because once they have tightened their control over society, they can’t relax it again. Relaxing it could damage their own political foundation. So under the current circumstances, they can only adopt tougher measures.

In order to maintain the stability of their administration, they can’t afford to relax their control over society. To them, maintaining stability means ensuring their survival. I think they will do whatever it takes to maintain this.

In fact, I think they have been increasing their control over society through big data and facial recognition technologies, as well as grid management. All these measures were launched in the name of combating the pandemic. These advanced technologies have brought Beijing’s control over civil society to a very sophisticated level. Essentially, everyone in China is under their close surveillance now.

This interview first appeared in Mandarin on DW’s Chinese website.